Young people’s aspirations for the future are important predictors of later behaviour (Fruttero et al., 2024). In other words, students who aspire to attend university are more likely to enroll in university (McCulloch, 2017). Recent evidence in the U.S suggests males have lower aspirations for attending university than females (Lundberg, 2020).
In this data story, we use three waves of GENERATION data, along with data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Youth (LSAY) to look at whether aspirations changed over time and whether there are any gender differences. This data story extends on two related data stories: How Education Plans Differ by Gender and Young People’s University Plans After Year 10
62% of Year 12 females in GENERATION planned to attend university
Almost half (46%) of Year 12 males in GENERATION planned to attend university
62% of Year 12 females, and 54% of Year 12 males in the LSAY Y15 cohort aspired to attend university
University aspirations declined over time in GENERATION
In the three years of the GENERATION survey, young people were asked “What do you plan to do immediately after finishing school?” We classified young people who chose “University or higher education provider” as having university aspirations. We classified young people who chose "go to TAFE or private training provider", "An apprenticeship", "A traineeship", or "Do some other course or training elsewhere" as having vocational aspirations.
Using weighted data, we find a higher percentage of females reported planning to attend university after finishing school, compared to males. In both 2022 and 2023, 68% of females wanted to attend university, but this dropped to 62% in 2024, when the students were predominately in Year 12.
The aspirations of males also changed over time, with 51% of males wanting to go to university in Year 10. This increased to 58% of males in Year 11 (2023) but declined again during Year 12 (2022) to 46%.
The percentage of students identifying as non-binary with university aspirations declined slightly over time, from 46% in Year 10 to 43% in Year 12.
We compared these results to findings from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Youth (LSAY), using the 2015 cohort. LSAY15 followed a cohort of students, who were in Year 10 in 2015.
In 2015, the item asked “What do level of education do you expect to complete?” Students who reported expecting to complete a bachelor’s degree or higher were classified as having university aspirations. In the following two years, the item was the same as GENERATION. Male and female were the genders collected at the time.
A similar pattern to GENERATION emerges in the LSAY15 cohort. The percentage of females aspiring to university was higher than males in all years of data collection. In 2015, when students were in Year 10, 60% of female students aspired to complete a university education. This dropped to 55% of females in Year 11 (2016) and increased to 62% in Year 12 (2017).
In comparison, 49% of males in Year 10 in 2015 reported expecting to complete a university education. This declined to 46% of males in Year 11 but then increased to 54% of males in 2017.
We find the percentage of males aspiring for vocational education (who plan to go to TAFE, another training provider, complete an apprenticeship, traineeship or another non-university course) has increased over time - with 17% of the LSAY15 Year 12 cohort aspiring for vocational education compared to 26% of the GENERATION Year 12 cohort.
Compared to the LSAY15 cohort, the cohort of students in GENERATION face unique challenges. GENERATION students were in Year 8 and 9 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, many of whom experienced school closures. During their late secondary schooling, they have faced increasing cost-of-living pressures and higher university fees.
We found that the percentage of young people with university aspirations declined in Year 12 in the GENERATION cohort, however the proportion of young people with university aspirations increase in the Year 12 students in the LSAY cohort. In LSAY15, there was a small decline in university aspirations at Year 11, however this could be due to changes in the wording of the item between Year 10 and 11.
Clearly, both data sets show that more females have university aspirations than males. This is consistent with National Universities Admission Data, which shows that more females than males are enrolling in University. We also found that more Year 12 students in GENERATION are planning vocational careers compared to Year 12 students in LSAY15.
Interestingly, in GENERATION and LSAY15, 62% of females reported having university aspirations at Year 12. However, 54% of males in Year 12 in LSAY15 planned to go to university immediately after finishing Year 12 and, 7 years later, the rate was 46% of males in GENERATION. Consistent with findings internationally, this suggests that less males are aspiring for university. Other commentary suggests it is the cost of university and the reduced perceived returns to university that is driving down university aspirations (and enrolments).