A key focus of the Australian Defence Force’s (ADF) National Defence Strategy is to recruit, retain, and grow a highly specialised and skilled workforce (Department of Defence, 2024). However, the ADF achieved only around 80% of its recruitment target between 2020–21 and 2022–23, falling short by approximately 4,400 personnel. Consequently, there is an urgent need to transform the Defence’s recruitment and retention systems, including of young people and diverse groups.
We analysed longitudinal data from the GENERATION Study to examine the characteristics of senior secondary school students who planned to join the ADF after finishing school.
9.6% of males in Year 10 planned to join the ADF after finishing school, compared to 5.4% of females.
Students who believed their parents wanted them to join the ADF were 31 times more likely to plan to join the ADF after finishing school.
36% of young people maintained their plans to join the ADF from Year 10 to Year 12.
Students in regional and rural areas were less likely to maintain their ADF aspirations from Year 10 to Year 12.
The chart above presents the percentages of young people who planned to join the ADF in Year 10 and Year 12. Young people were classified as "Planning to Join the Australian Defence Force" if they selected Australian Defence Force as their intended plan immediately after leaving school or if they reported planning to join the ADF sometime in the future.
In Year 10, almost 7% of young people planned to join the Australian Defence Force, before declining to 5.0% in Year 12.
Key takeaways include:
-Interest levels declined for all groups.
-Males consistently showed the highest levels of interest, whereas females showed the lowest.
-Those from low SES backgrounds had relatively higher levels of interest in the ADF.
-Students from First Nations backgrounds had the greatest decline in interest over time from 8% to 4%.
-Those in regional areas also showed declines in interest from 7% to 4%.
The graph above shows the strongest predictors of planning to join the ADF at Year 10.
Perceiving that parents wanted them to join the ADF was the strongest predictor of planning to join the ADF. Young people who reported that their parents wanted them to join the ADF after leaving school were 31 times more likely to plan to join the ADF themselves.
Young people with at least one parent with a Defence occupation were 1.9 times more likely to plan to join the ADF.
Those who thought their friends wanted to join the ADF after finishing school were twice as likely to plan to join the Defence Force compared to those that didn't.
Males were 1.7 times more likely than females to plan to join the ADF after finishing school. Young people with at least one parent born in Australia were 1.5 times more likely to plan to join the ADF compared to peers whose parents were born overseas.
State, geographical area, area socioeconomic status, and school sector were not associated with planning to join the ADF. Several student background characteristics were not significantly associated with plans to join the ADF including those with an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander background, a reported disability, speaking a language other than English at home, being born in Australia, participating in an accelerated learning program in Year 10, and having a parent with a university degree.
The analysis also explored whether young people maintained or developed plans to join the ADF between Year 10 and Year 12.
Only 36% of those who wanted to join the ADF in Year 10 continued to do so until Year 12 - 64% changed their mind.
This decline in initial interest was offset by 3% of all the other students who were interested in joining the ADF, developing an interest by Year 12.
These results suggest that strategies aimed at maintaining students’ interest in joining the ADF could play a key role in increasing ADF recruitment levels.
Factors contributing to a decline or change in ADF aspirations over time were:
-Students from regional or remote areas were less likely to maintain their plans to join the ADF by Year 12, highlighting the need to address barriers faced by young people living beyond metropolitan centres.
-Students with parents with higher levels of education were less likely to develop plans to join the ADF over time. This may reflect parental preferences for alternative, non-Defence, pathways, such as university education.
-Consistent with much of the previous research, female students were much less likely to maintain interest or develop an interest in joining the ADF over time.
Overall, these findings highlight the important role that family, peer, and career influences play in shaping interest in joining the Australian Defence Force. For defence recruitment, these findings highlight the importance of engaging not only with young people but also with their parents, schools, and broader communities. Efforts should continue to focus on increasing recruitment among underrepresented groups, such as females, to build a more inclusive and representative workforce.
This Research was supported as part of the Department of Defence Strategic Policy Grants Program. The full report is available at Young people’s interest in a Defence career: Findings from Waves 1-3 of the GENERATION study [click here].