Do young people’s plans to attend University change over time? The national Post-School Destination (GENERATION) survey has tracked the aspirations of young people from Year 10 (in 2022) to Year 11 (in 2023). In 2023, 64% of Year 11 students reported planning to go to university or another higher education provider after leaving school. The recently released Universities Accord report recommends that 80% the workforce should have a tertiary qualification by 2050.
Over half of the young people (55%) have the same aspirations to attend University in Year 10 and 11. Almost one-quarter (23%) persist in having no university aspirations. But, 12% of young people report no longer wanting to go to University in Year 11, compared to Year 10. On the other hand, 9% of young people reported now aiming to go to University in Year 11, compared to Year 10.
Same University Aspirations
Same No-University Aspirations
No longer want to go to University
Now want to go to University
As students move in to later secondary school, their educational plans and aspirations can change. One reason for this is because students develop more understanding about the realities of attending University. Factors young people might consider include: the need to move away from home, the ability to receive the required grades for a university offer, and the ability to afford University course fees (and associated costs, like accommodation, textbooks, etc.).
We find that the young people who changed their educational plans between Year 10 and Year 11 and no longer wanted to attend university (compared to young people whose university aspirations persisted) were:
-male,
-more likely to live in a regional or remote area,
-had a self-reported disability,
-had a single parent,
-had parents born in Australia (compared to migrant parents), or
-had uncertain plans about they wanted to do in Year 10.
We find that young people with a university-educated parent are 1.8 times more likely to change their aspirations from not wanting to attend university in Year 10 to planning for university in Year 11. Young people were also more likely to have higher aspirations for university in Year 11 (compared to Year 10) if their school was in a metro area (compared to a regional/remote area) or if they did not have a self-reported disability.
Taken together, these findings suggest that young people whose parents value education (e.g., university educated parents and/or migrant parents) are more likely to report persistent or increased university aspirations. More disadvantaged students, such as those who lives in regional or remote areas or who have a disability, are more likely to have decreased university aspirations. Males were also found to be more likely to no longer want to attend university.